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The phenomenal growth of both the world-wide tourism industry and academic interest in tourism over the last thirty years has generated great interest in tourism demand modelling and forecasting from both sectors.

However, the tendency for researchers and practitioners engaged in quantitative causal tourism modelling and forecasting to run many regression equations and try to choose the 'best' model based on various parametric and non-parametric criteria has been widely criticised as failing to provide credible results. The aim of this book is to present the recent advances in econometric modelling methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis at a level that is accessible to non-specialists, and to illustrate these new developments with actual tourism applications.
The book begins with an introduction to the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, before addressing the problems of traditional tourism demand modelling and forecasting, i.e. data mining and spurious regression due to common trends in the time series. Three chapters explore the general-to-specific approach to tourism demand modelling and forecasting, including the use of autoregressive distributed lag processes, cointegration analysis and error correction models. The time varying parameter model together with the use of the Kalman filter as an estimation method is a useful tool for examining the effects of regime shifts on tourism demand elasticities: this is explored next. The panel data approach is introduced as a way of overcoming the problem of estimation and forecasting biases caused by insufficient time series data. The book concludes by evaluating the empirical forecasting performance of the various models and putting forward some general conclusions.

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It is now some thirty years since Deligne first proved his general equidistribution theorem, thus establishing the fundamental result governing the statistical properties of suitably "pure" algebro-geometric families of character sums over finite fields (and of their associated L-functions). Roughly speaking

, Deligne showed that any such family obeys a "generalized Sato-Tate law," and that figuring out which generalized Sato-Tate law applies to a given family amounts essentially to computing a certain complex semisimple (not necessarily connected) algebraic group, the "geometric monodromy group" attached to that family.

Up to now, nearly all techniques for determining geometric monodromy groups have relied, at least in part, on local information. In Moments, Monodromy, and Perversity, Nicholas Katz develops new techniques, which are resolutely global in nature. They are based on two vital ingredients, neither of which existed at the time of Deligne's original work on the subject. The first is the theory of perverse sheaves, pioneered by Goresky and MacPherson in the topological setting and then brilliantly transposed to algebraic geometry by Beilinson, Bernstein, Deligne, and Gabber. The second is Larsen's Alternative, which very nearly characterizes classical groups by their fourth moments. These new techniques, which are of great interest in their own right, are first developed and then used to calculate the geometric monodromy groups attached to some quite specific universal families of (L-functions attached to) character sums over finite fields.

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Rumors and Gossip . . . The lifeblood of London

When Olivia Bevelstoke is told that her new neighbor may have killed his fiance, she doesn't believe it for a second, but, still, how can she help spying on him, just to be sure? So she stakes out a spot near her bedroom window, cleverly concealed by curtains, watches, and waits . . . and discovers a most intriguing man, who is definitely up to something.



Sir Harry Valentine works for the boring branch of the War Office, translating documents vital to national security. He's not a spy, but he's had all the training, and when a gorgeous blonde begins to watch him from her window, he is instantly suspicious. But just when he decides that she's nothing more than an annoyingly nosy debutante, he discovers that she might be engaged to a foreign prince, who might be plotting against England. And when Harry is roped into spying on Olivia, he discovers that he might be falling for her himself . . .


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Despite the enduring importance of the U.S.–Japan security alliance, the broader relationship between the two countries is today beset by sobering new difficulties. In this comprehensive comparative analysis of the transpacific alliance and its political, economic, and social foundations, Kent E. Calder, a leading Japan specialist


, asserts that bilateral relations between the two countries are dangerously eroding as both seek broader options in a globally oriented world.

Calder documents the quiet erosion of America’s multidimensional ties with Japan as China rises, generations change, and new forces arise in both American and Japanese politics. He then assesses consequences for a twenty-first-century military alliance with formidable coordination requirements, explores alternative foreign paradigms for dealing with the United States, adopted by Britain, Germany, and China, and offers prescriptions for restoring U.S.–Japan relations to vitality once again.

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Text covers modeling microwave circuits using commercial electromagnetic field-solvers. Provides advice on selecting the right tools for RF and high-speed digital circuit design work. Focuses on the strengths and weaknesses of the major commercial software packages. Features full-color illustrations.



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